2017 NFL Free Agency: Alshon Jeffery Contract Projection

Alshon Jeffery Contract | 2017 NFL Free Agent | Chicago Bears

HT: 6-3 WT: 218 Age: 27 Seasons: 5
Status: UFA

**Update: The Chicago Bears did not franchise Jeffery.**

Chicago Bears Cap Space (Top 51): $52.36M

Alshon Jeffery Scouting Report

Positives
Great size. Wins 50/50 balls by boxing out defenders. Physical. Strong hands. Red zone threat. Goes through stretches where he looks unguardable.  Amazing 2014 seasons and dominated in ’15 but missed 7 games to injury. Good run blocker. Great potential that’s been cut short.

Negatives
Never truly proved he could be consistently dominant WR1 without Brandon Marshall on the other side. Has history of nagging ssoft-tissue injuries (hamstring/calf) injuries. Suspended four games in ’16 (PED violation). Not explosive/YAC WR. Despite skillset, has struggled to score TD.

Alshon Jeffery Statistics

  • Best season: 89 receptions, 1,421 yards, 88.8 YPG, 7 TD (2014)
  • 2-year average before deal (AVG): 10.5 games, 53 REC, 814 yards, 77.5 YPG, 3 TD

Alshon Jeffery Player Comparables

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs

  • Contract: 5 year, $55M; $11M AVG, $22.5M GTD, $22.5M FG (2015)
  • 2-year AVG: 77 REC, 1,087.5, 70.2 YPG, 8.5 TD
  • 2017 salary cap adjustment (CAP): 5 year, $64.5M; $12.9M AVG, $26.4M FG

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

  • Contract: 4 year, $46M; $11.5M AVG, $24.25M GTD, $12M FG (2016)
  • 2-year AVG: 72 REC, 947 yards, 59.2 YPG, 8.5 TD
  • 2017 CAP: 4 year, $62.2M; $12.4M AVG, $33.1M GTD, $16.2M FG

TY Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

  • Contract: 5 year, $65M; $13M AVG, $28M GTD, $11M FG (2015)
  • 2-year AVG: 82 REC, 1,200.5 yards, 77.5 YPG, 6 TD
  • 2017 CAP: 5 year, $70.4M; $14.1M AVG, $30.3M GTD $11.9M FG

Alshon Jeffery Leverage

Jeffery, like Maclin, would be a UFA if Bears don’t franchise him again. Hilton/Baldwin had a year left on their deals and didn’t have luxury of competing bidders, although Hilton did have the strongest production going into the negotiaions.

Best Alternative to Long-Term Agreement

Bears – Use franchise tag on Jeffery.
Jeffery – Sign tag or sit out team’s first ten games before signing.

Alshon Jeffery Reservation Price

Jeffery is going to the table with the Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and DeMaryius Thomas contracts. AB just reset the market at the postiion. He’s shooting to be the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. His credentials say otherwise, but it only takes two teams (either with an abundance of cap or a wide receiver need) to start a bidding war based on his potential. Free agency is a beautiful place–good players get paid like great players. His floor is probably Hilton’s deal.

Projection: 5 years, $67.5 M; $13.5M AVG, $24.5M GTD, $18.5M FG

Alshon Jeffery Contract Structure**

Signing Bonus – $12M
2017 – $1.5 base + $5M Roster Bonus
2018 – $10M base
2019 – $11.5M base
2020 – $13M base
2021 – $14M base
*Annual $100K workout bonuses

*Contract information from Over The Cap, Spotrac, Pro Football Talk, and/or other sources.
*Statistics from NFL.com
**Contract structures are based on 2016 team’s tendencies.

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